Raghav Bahl, founder of the media company Network18 which he headed until 2014, has written an interesting book entitled SuperEconomies: America, India, China & the Future of the World (2015). The twentieth century after the Second World War was a story of two Superpowers: USA and USSR. After the collapse of the USSR, the USA remained the sole Superpower throughout the 1990s. But with the dawn of the twenty-first century we have been ushered into the realm of SuperEconomies where America has to make room for the BRICS nations (especially China and India) not as "political or military challengers but as economic and diplomatic 'frenemies'". This is the book's central thesis.
Bahl, in particular, deals with the dynamic relationships between the US, India and China. As he says: "While the Superpower era was characterized by a cold war of estrangement and impassivity, the Age of SuperEconomies engenders a much 'warmer' kind of interaction, where engagement is essential, even - or maybe especially - during moments of conflict."
Bahl joins many economic observers in heralding the economic decline of the West. As he puts it: "What Europe was to the twentieth century, Asia will be to the twenty-first: the core theatre of global commerce and conflict, where aspirations and political ideologies collide. For the first time in 500 years, the bulk of global power resides not in Europe or the Americas but in Asia."
Bahl has a lucid and engrossing style of writing and gives a panoramic description of India's colonial past. the US struggle for independence, the emergence of China as an economic player, the Indo-Pak conflicts, the Indo-US diplomatic interactions, and China-Pak relationships. He gives an elaborate account of how China is trying to flex its muscles in the international market (as in trying to monopolize the rare earth metals market in the last few years) and also in geopolitics (for instance, over the control of South China Sea).
Bahl also debates the relative virtues of soft power over hard power. US has a lot of both whereas China has mainly grown on employment of hard power. India is treated as a West-friendly nation unlike China because of the abundance of India's soft power that includes Indian culture, Bollywood movies, India's software strength and also the growing Indian diaspora which is known to be hard-working and law-abiding.
India, states Bahl, should stop sitting on the fence over vital issues and take decisive action on the international front. Then India can aim to a leader among Asian nations when a NATO or NAFTA of the Pacific comes into existence.
The 2008 crisis came a blow to the world. But Bahl says that India has recovered from the aftereffects and will hit an average growth rate of 8 to 9 per cent in the three decades leading up to 2050. America's recovery has been relatively slow and fitful but Bahl expects it to stabilize and grow with more assurance. China's growth has however faltered and by 2050 it would not be able to compete with the joint strength of the US-India powerhouse.
Bahl paints an optimistic picture of the future. Bahl says, "[T]he twenty-first century has the potential to be one of the most harmonious and prosperous in history....Together, the world's two biggest democracies will light the way for all the smaller or fledgling ones. They will act as a check on Chinese combativeness, compelling Beijing to remain linked to multilateral institutions like the United Nations and global climate and trade organizations. And they will ensure that the world's centre of gravity remains free, fair, secular and open for all."
Bahl also considers that China would become more democratic. It would not be the classic Western or Indian model of a multiparty electoral system but it would be a "one-and-a-half party democracy" which would loosen its control of personal freedoms pushing it towards greater political as well as social openness.
Now with the election of Donald Trump as US President, American combativeness seems to be on the rise. America is veering off the globalization track and has brought protectionism to the fore. Trade wars with China seem to be in the offing. It remains to be seen if the future of the world would remain as potentially rosy as Bahl has made it out to be.
Bahl, in particular, deals with the dynamic relationships between the US, India and China. As he says: "While the Superpower era was characterized by a cold war of estrangement and impassivity, the Age of SuperEconomies engenders a much 'warmer' kind of interaction, where engagement is essential, even - or maybe especially - during moments of conflict."
Bahl joins many economic observers in heralding the economic decline of the West. As he puts it: "What Europe was to the twentieth century, Asia will be to the twenty-first: the core theatre of global commerce and conflict, where aspirations and political ideologies collide. For the first time in 500 years, the bulk of global power resides not in Europe or the Americas but in Asia."
Bahl has a lucid and engrossing style of writing and gives a panoramic description of India's colonial past. the US struggle for independence, the emergence of China as an economic player, the Indo-Pak conflicts, the Indo-US diplomatic interactions, and China-Pak relationships. He gives an elaborate account of how China is trying to flex its muscles in the international market (as in trying to monopolize the rare earth metals market in the last few years) and also in geopolitics (for instance, over the control of South China Sea).
Bahl also debates the relative virtues of soft power over hard power. US has a lot of both whereas China has mainly grown on employment of hard power. India is treated as a West-friendly nation unlike China because of the abundance of India's soft power that includes Indian culture, Bollywood movies, India's software strength and also the growing Indian diaspora which is known to be hard-working and law-abiding.
India, states Bahl, should stop sitting on the fence over vital issues and take decisive action on the international front. Then India can aim to a leader among Asian nations when a NATO or NAFTA of the Pacific comes into existence.
The 2008 crisis came a blow to the world. But Bahl says that India has recovered from the aftereffects and will hit an average growth rate of 8 to 9 per cent in the three decades leading up to 2050. America's recovery has been relatively slow and fitful but Bahl expects it to stabilize and grow with more assurance. China's growth has however faltered and by 2050 it would not be able to compete with the joint strength of the US-India powerhouse.
Bahl paints an optimistic picture of the future. Bahl says, "[T]he twenty-first century has the potential to be one of the most harmonious and prosperous in history....Together, the world's two biggest democracies will light the way for all the smaller or fledgling ones. They will act as a check on Chinese combativeness, compelling Beijing to remain linked to multilateral institutions like the United Nations and global climate and trade organizations. And they will ensure that the world's centre of gravity remains free, fair, secular and open for all."
Bahl also considers that China would become more democratic. It would not be the classic Western or Indian model of a multiparty electoral system but it would be a "one-and-a-half party democracy" which would loosen its control of personal freedoms pushing it towards greater political as well as social openness.
Now with the election of Donald Trump as US President, American combativeness seems to be on the rise. America is veering off the globalization track and has brought protectionism to the fore. Trade wars with China seem to be in the offing. It remains to be seen if the future of the world would remain as potentially rosy as Bahl has made it out to be.
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